China's risky scramble for oil

David R. Francis in the CSM hits it spot on regarding China's future foreign policy driver; and future role as power projector...More to follow//JW sends.

The challenge is huge. For China and India to reach just one-quarter of the level of US oil consumption, world output would have to rise by 44 percent. To get to half the US level, world production would need to nearly double. That's impossible. The world's oil reserves are finite. And the view is spreading that global oil output will soon peak.

As a result, "the growing demand for oil is leading to a growing global conflict," warns Amos Nur, a geophysicist at Stanford University. The 1991 Gulf War, the 9/11 attack, and the current war in Iraq are skirmishes that could "pale in comparison with the looming potential conflict over oil with China."

Oil has often influenced history. An American and British oil embargo on Japan, which was close to running out of fuel for its growing navy and empire, was one reason that island nation advanced a plan to attack Pearl Harbor to Dec. 7, 1941. That move brought the US into World War II, at a time when world oil output still was rising. A peak - when it comes - will be a major event shaping geopolitical policy and future prices.

"There is a growing recognition of future oil scarcity, or at least the end of growth," says Jim Meyer, director of The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre in London. "The challenge of producing more and more oil is getting more and more difficult."